Gears In Understanding

  • One way to evaluate a model is to look at how deterministically interconnected its components are
  • How do you know whether a model has deterministically interconnected components?
    • Is the model falsifiable?
    • If the model were falsified, how precisely could you infer other things from the falsification?
    • How incoherent is it to imagine a single variable changing within the model?
    • If you knew the model were accurate, but you forgot one of the variables, would you be able to rederive the missing information?
  • Example: gears in a box
    • If you have gears in an opaque box, your model is not deterministically interconnected - knowing how the input gear turns gives you little or no ability to predict the output gear
    • If the box is transparent, it’s much easier to make predictions about the output
  • Example: arithmetic
    • There is a tension between memorizing the usage of an algorithm and understanding how an algorithm really works
    • We should define “understanding” as a student’s ability to re-derive missing parts of an algorithm from their knowledge of other parts of the algorithm
  • Example: Valentine’s Mother
    • If Valentine tells you that their mother likes history, that’s a random disconnected fact
    • But to them, their mother’s enjoyment of history can be derived from other facts that they know about their mother
    • Valentine’s model of their mother has more deterministically interconnected pieces than ours does
    • Models can be viewed on a continuum between collections of random facts and axiomatic systems where everything can be logically derived
  • Example: gyroscopes
    • Most people think that gyroscopes behave in a non-intuitive fashion
    • Most people have a model of the world in which it’s coherent to imagine that physics works exactly as it actually does, except when you drop a gyroscope, it falls like a non-spinning object
    • The nice thing about physics is that everything is interconnected - falsifying even a small piece of the model leads to updates everywhere else
  • Interconnectedness is not the same as goodness
    • If you have a model that has more disconnected components, but also generates better predictions, use that
    • Most of our models don’t connect all the way down to physics, so it’s all right if not every part of your model can be derived from base axioms
  • Insisting that models be interconnected and deterministic is a powerful tool for cutting through confusion

In Praise of Fake Frameworks

  • Valentine uses a lot of models that are “obviously wrong” in some way
  • Examples of “fake frameworks”
    • Distinction between extroverts and introverts
    • MBTI personality types
  • An ontology is a set of “basic” elements that you use to build a model
    • “Point”, “line” and “plane” are the ontology of Euclidean geometry
    • “Mass”, “position” and “time” are the ontolgy of Newtonian mechanics
    • People get confused when they switch ontologies without noticing
    • The MBTI personality traits can form a useful ontology, even though they don’t directly correspond to parts of personality
  • It’s a type error to say that ontologies are either correct or wrong
    • The ontology itself can neither be correct nor incorrect as those are facts that only apply to the models that you build from the ontology
    • The concept of ki in aikido can be useful even though it has no direct correspondent in physics
  • Try different ontologies, even if you know that they’ve been used to build incorrect models

The MTG Color Wheel

  • Magic: The Gathering (MTG) colors form an ontology of personality types and motivations
  • MTG has 5 colors, arranged in a wheel, each with its own characteristics
    • White - peace through order
      • Coordination, cooperation and restraint are the key to ending suffering in the world
    • Asks what is the right action to take, where “right” is defined by some moral or cultural framework
    • Blue - perfection through knowledge
      • Figure out the truth and apply that truth to the fullest extent
      • Asks, “What course of action makes the most sense?” - “sense” is determined by careful analysis and expertise
      • Seeks to change the rules, rather than just applying the rules
    • Black - satisfaction through ruthlessness
      • Desires agency - the ability to shape the world
      • Asks, “What will leave me best off?”
      • Amoral, rather than immoral - moral considerations are secondary to power considerations
    • Red - freedom through actions
      • Seeks the ability to live in the moment
      • Asks, “What do I feel like doing?”
    • Green - harmony through acceptance
      • Most suffering comes from trying to fix things that aren’t broken
      • Color of Chesterton’s Fence
      • Asks, “How are things usually done? What is the established wisdom?”
  • Colors disagree with those that are across the wheel from them Magic: The Gathering Color Oppositions
    • White prioritizes the group over the individual
    • Black prioritizes the individual over the group
    • Green sees the environment as something to be cherished and preserved
    • Black sees the environment as a resource to be exploited
    • Green sees genetics and environment as being determinative, while blue believes in transcending one’s origins
    • Blue sees red as impulsive and rash, while red sees blue as repressed and unfeeling
    • Red and white disagree on structure and commitment
  • Colors ally with those that are adjacent to them on the wheel Magic: The Gathering Color Alliances
    • White and blue agree on the importance of structure
    • Blue and black agree on the importance of personal growth
    • Black and red agree on the importance of independence and agency
    • Red and green agree on the importance of authenticity
    • Green and white agree that the whole is greater than the sum of its parts
  • Although opposite colors are nominally opposed, it’s still possible to combine them Magic: The Gathering Color Opposite Combinations
    • Black and white combine to form tribalism
    • Blue and red form creativity
    • Black and green form Darwinian ethics - a belief in the virtue of struggle and the notion that whatever emerges from that struggle is virtuous
    • Red and white are the colors of heroism - a belief in what’s right combined with the willingness to go outside existing power structures to accomplish it
    • Blue and green are the colors of truth-seeking
      • Both blue and green seek to know the world as it is
      • Blue wants to know the world as it is in order to change it
      • Green wants to know the world as it is to make peace with it
  • So what do we do with the color wheel?
    • Classify things and make predictions
    • Colors give you associations that can bias your predictions in useful ways
    • Colors only represent goals and means, not morality - every color is good in some ways and evil in others
    • Assigning colors to people can help you understand their motivations and their worldview

On Types of Typologies

  • Meyers-Briggs Type Indicator
    • Inconsistently applied
    • Unscientific
    • Yet why does Scott consistently recognize himself as an INTJ?
  • MBTI can be both unscientific and a useful tool
  • Factor analysis shows that there are 5 traits, only one of which corresponds with an MBTI type
  • Five-Factor and MBTI are trying to do different things
    • Five-Factor is trying to break down personality into mathematically precise components for research purposes
    • MBTI is trying to separate people into categories that are easy to think about
  • Even the poorly drawn categories of MBTI can be useful